ANALYSIS

What are Izetbegović and Čović talking about in Mostar?

Will there be a barter of the mayor's position for Croats in exchange for the formation of the new Government of the Federation of B&H

Piše: Fadil Mandal

Čović and Izetbegović: Intensified conversations. Avaz

The vote count after the elections in Mostar is coming to an end, and talks on the new government, the mayor and the future of the city on the Neretva are just beginning.

Everyone wants the position of mayor. HDZ, with individually the largest number of won council seats, sees the holder of the list, Mario Kordić, in that position. The "Coalition for Mostar", within which the SDA will probably have eight council seats, is pushing Dr. Zlatko Guzin to become the head the city.


Zvizdić's (un)sincere call

The „Civic bloc“, which consists of the SDP and Naša stranka, would like to place the popular Irma Baralija among the people of Mostar in the mayor's chair.

Three legitimate wishes, 18 hands are required for the majority, and the place is only one. Mathematically, all options are open. The "Coalition for Mostar", with 12 councilors, can appoint a mayor in alliance with "B&H bloc '' and its six councilors, without HDZ.

The HDZ, with its 13 councilors, can most easily elect a mayor from the SDA's eight councilors, which would be a continuation of the decades-old coalition between the two parties. The same can be done with six councilors of the SDP and Naša stranka, but this is already a bit more difficult and unlikely option.

Denis Zvizdić, vice president of the SDA, the party in charge of this year's elections in Mostar, calls for a program gathering of pro-Bosnian parties from the "Coalition for Mostar" and "B&H block '', which can ensure the choice of Dr. Guzina or Irma Baralija for mayor, but it does not solve the problem of further functioning of the government in Mostar, because without HDZ and its 13 councilors, it is simply impossible.

Our party and the SDP view such and similar initiatives from the SDA with considerable suspicion. It is believed that Zvizdić's call is not sincere and that it is just a forced half-step that the SDA is making, counting on the fact that "B&H bloc'' to reject the offer, which consequently gives an alibi for SDA negotiations and post-election cooperation with HDZ.


Dragan Čović and Bakir Izetbegović. Archive

This is supported by information about the advanced talks between the leaders of HDZ and SDA, Dragan Čović and Bakir Izetbegović, which are conducted far from the eyes of the public, but also of their coalition partners. Allegedly, the mayor's office for HDZ's Mario Kordić is on the table in exchange for removing the barricades that Čović set up for the formation of the new Government of the Federation of B&H.

Public conflicts and secret agreements

Given Mostar's political, economic, and demographic importance to the HDZ and Dragan Čović - whom he unjustifiably calls the "capital city of Croats in B&H" at every opportunity - rumors of a willingness to trade Kordić to head Mostar for the new FB&H government do not appear far from the truth.

Experience so far tells us that the SDA and HDZ always agree in the end, regardless of public conflicts and difficult words.

Especially since the "Coalition for Mostar" (in which the SDA has the most councilors) has achieved a result by which Izetbegović can now wave his peace of mind in front of those within the party who are naturalizing the election debacle in Sarajevo.

If the door is opened for the rapid formation of the Federal Government, in which the SDA currently has only three ministers and prime ministers, the mayoral post in Mostar, from Izetbegović's point of view, will be the lowest price he and the SDA have to pay.


Is a two-thirds majority possible without the HDZ?

A much more difficult political operation will be securing a two-thirds majority (24 councilors out of 35), which makes all important decisions in the Mostar City Council, from the budget onwards. The key role in this crossword puzzle will be played by the Alliance for a Better Future, which is part of the "Coalition for Mostar", with three councilors, and the Croatian Republican Party, with three councilors.

With SBB's three councilors, HDZ with 13 and SDA with eight have a two-thirds majority. DF and its leader Željko Komšić have already announced that cooperation with HDZ in the City Council is out of the question, where DF will most likely have one councilor.

In the second variant, in which there would be no SDA and DF, HDZ with 13, ''B&H bloc'' with six and SBB with three councilors, do not have a two-thirds majority, so they need the help of three HRS councilors.

The least likely, more precisely impossible mission is to make the two-thirds majority needed for the functioning of the government in Mostar without the HDZ. All other parties and coalitions, including one SNSD and SDS councilor who does not have a decisive force in any combination, have a total of 22 councilors.